Thursday, March 07, 2013

BETHESDA "SNOW" STORM PROVED EURO MODEL RIGHT, LOCAL FORECASTERS WRONG

While I certainly did not claim a prediction of a specific amount prior to Winter Storm Saturn's arrival in the DC area, I did share with you a little-discussed forecast by the Euro Model folks, which estimated 1-3" maximum of snowfall in our area.

The Euro Model has been right many times, was spot-on for Superstorm Sandy in our area, and hit the target once again.

I can't recall any local forecaster endorsing the Euro Model, but it has certainly gained more credibility.

Personally, I was glad to dodge the storm.

I used the Weather Channel hashtag #Saturn, as I don't like the way the Washington Post tries to dominate local media coverage by telling us what to call the storm.

My recollection is that the Post was dead wrong on this one, Sandy, and the last 2 before that.

My feeling is, if you can get the forecasts right, then maybe you earn the right to name the storms. A top-down social media policy seems out-of-date. Why not let crowdsourcing generate a name, and use a generic tag until then?

It's a very difficult business predicting the weather, but forecasts have been so wrong over the last year - with the exception of the Euro Model - that I wonder if some major pieces of equipment have failed. Or if it is the result of (pre-sequester) budget cuts.

Looking forward to better weather today.

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